liz_marcs | Scenes from a Presidential Primary

Current Mood: amused

Scenes from a Presidential Primary

Cast of Characters

Our Heroine (OH)
Our Heroine's Mother (OHM)

Our Heroine's Mother (OHM): I'm still stunned that Barak Obama won Iowa. That state's something like 95% white.

Our Heroine (OH): Ummmm, okay. What does being white have to do with voting for who you think is the best candidate? I mean, Obama's my second choice, so I wouldn't have caucused for him in Iowa since Edwards is my number one, but still...

OHM: Honey, this is Iowa. All those white people voted for a black man.

OH: I think you're confusing Iowa with Southie.

OHM: I'm kind of worried about him, actually. I can't imagine he's going to win New Hampshire.

OH: Actually, Obama has a decisive lead in New Hampshire.

OHM: No! That cannot possibly be right. Are you sure?

OH: He's something like 10 points ahead of Clinton.

OHM: In New Hampshire?

OH: I know. I can't believe it either.

OHM: This is New Hampshire we're talking about, right? The same New Hampshire we all know and loathe, right?

OH: Nashua's not so bad.

OHM: Only because that's where all the normal people live.

OH: Well, I have to admit that you could knock me over with a feather when Obama was welcomed like a rock star in Milford, N.H., of all places.

OHM: Milford? Are you kidding? I remember when you lived in Milford. I can't imagine him getting any love there.

OH: Tell me about it. I was completely shocked. Who knew there were that many Democrats in Milford?

OHM: I can't believe it. Milford. The times, they really are a-changing.

OH: Could've knocked me over with a feather when I saw a sea of blue in Milford. I mean, I was pretty sure all the Democrats moved out of town when they instituted an open hunting season on anyone with a "D" after their name on the voting roles.

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OHM made me howl! Especially Nashua being the place where the normal people live.

And while Mom may be confusing Iowa with Southie, his victory was damned impressive. (Hell, I've got a road map of Ireland on my face and I'm scared to go Southie. When I moved to West Roxbury one of my new neighbors came across the fence to congratulate me for being queer. So my view's a little... askew!) :D

Heeee! Southie is a scary neighborhood since I've got the map of Italy on my face. Good to know you Ireland-face maps have the same issue.

And hee on the West Roxbury! Only in the People's Republic of Massachusetts.

Although it is the 21st century and apparently a lot of people can see past his color. Which is a good thing.

My Da won't vote for him, because he says he doesn't vote for anyone whose name he cannot pronounce. Doesn't matter what race he is.

Me, I'm still voting for Hermione. What, she's not on the ballot? *starts a petition*

*blink*

Name pronunciation is an interesting way to choose a candidate. Heh. I've heard worse systems.

Oh-bah-mah. Easy as baa-ram-ewe. Da is equivocating.

I'm cracking up at all of the Iowa is 95% white! comments I've heard from the talking heads, etc. Yep, Iowa is, but it's the least racist place I've ever lived.

Which is why I pointed out that she might be comparing Iowa to Southie, which is (or at least was) a very racist Irish enclave. Hell, I once took a wrong turn and ended up alone in Southie without an Irish-looking escort. And I was followed until I left the neighborhood.

Anyway, I honestly couldn't get the whole "Iowa is so white" dealie, unless the talking heads were confusing Iowa with Idaho (which is the headquarter state for more than a few White Supremacist/Separatist movements), which wouldn't shock me in the least.

I think maybe the surprise comes from the pre-Iowa media narrative about Obama that state that only urban blacks would vote for him. o_0

Yeah. Okay. Whatever on the media narrative.

I'm loving the new media narrative, that claims that John McCain will almost certainly be the Republican nominee.

These primaries are *fun*.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

McCain will probably take New Hampshire, but I don't see him taking the nomination.

A big part of the reason? SuperTuesday, which has an awful lot of Bible-belt states represented. I'm fairly certain that if Huckabee doesn't get the nod presidential nod, he'll be able to force his way onto the ticket as a VP for whomever does get the nod.

I can guarantee that ol' Huck is gonna scare away centrists.

Personally, I'm predicting that Huckabee is gonna get massacred in New Hampshire...the Republicans in NH may tend to be on the right-wing side, but they freak the fuck out the second you start trying to inject religion into politics. When I lived up there, several school board members in several towns faced a near-lynching when it came out that they lied about their ties to the (then-powerful) Christian coalition.

I think it's wishful thinking, because the Republican party machine does not want Huckabee for the precise reason you said-- the centrists and Independents will never vote for him in a general election. McCain has more general appeal even though he's not popular with the ultra-conservatives.

I think either way is a wash though. I doubt McCain, with his pro-Iraq platform in *today's* war climate will get a lot of non-party votes either.

There are racists here, as everywhere. Conservatives, however, are more concentrated in certain parts of the state. (It may be prejudice, but traditionally stupidity is considered to be more concentrated in those portions as well.)

One problem with generalizing from Iowa is that the caucus favors the candidate with heavily committed followers. It's possible, indeed, that this aspect of politics has increased ideological chasms. It would be interesting to see what would happen if the first three primaries were small states that used Immediate runoff voting and winner take all delegate assignment.

I love it. Particularly the New Hampshire bit.

I will admit, I'm still trying to figure out how one state can have Barak Obama and Mike Huckabee come out on top of their perspective party caucuses.

I think it's more of a symbol on how far apart the two parties actually are right now.

Once upon a time, the difference between the R candidate and the D candidate was a matter of degrees. But, I'd argue, that starting with Bil Clinton's first run for president, you started the cracks appear between the two parties. It's gotten to the point where it's now officially a chasm.

So I can easily see how you got two diametrically opposed candidates. The core of both parties are diametrically opposed at this point.

However, it's interesting to note that Hilary Clinton, who came in 3rd, still got three times the number of votes as Huckabee, so I'd argue that the Republic Party is shrinking because a lot of the so-called "RINO"s (the old-fashioned centrist Republicans) have been driven out by either the religious right or the extreme social conservatives.

Heh. It's always fascinating being able to see another country's elections from an internal point of view. From all the stuff I've been seeing over here in England, it seemed like Hillary Clinton was a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination, but apparently not?

Clinton's inevitability actually went *poof* something like 3 weeks ago (it was literally overnight), even before the Iowa caucuses. At least that's the feeling I got as I followed a lot of the in-depth online stuff.

Frankly, I've always had a feeling that Obama is actually the inevitable one. I've had that feeling since the 2004 Democratic National Convention, to be honest.

If he does get the nomination, who will he choose as his VP?

Honestly? It's a fascinating question.

In a lot of ways, Obama's hard to pin down on a few things. It isn't that you don't know where he stands on things, it's just that you're not exactly sure what he's like behind closed doors. Certainly he comes across as coolly intelligent and flexible (I, for one, see a difference between flexibility and flip-flopping...). Those are two aspects that we're going to desperately need.

However, what he lacks is experience. He's come of political age during the time that the Republicans have instituted a "no compromise" policy when it comes to Democratic initiatives, so he's not used to backroom wheeling and dealing LBJ style.

Truthfully, I think he's going to need a wheeler and dealer VP if he hopes to actually govern by consensus.

True, this is a year where even New Hampshire is looking awfully Blue (instead of its traditional Red, in large part because of the heavy whiff of religion on the Republican candidates), so if he wins the General Election the chances of him actually needing to govern in conjunction with the Republicans is slim at best, but that fortune can turn on a dime in 2010. Better if he's got someone who knows how to work the coatrooms in the House and the Senate in his VP slot.

As to whom that might be....I honestly don't know.

HEHEHE. Funny. It reads like an outtake from "The West Wing".

What makes it doubly funny is that conversation above is reproduced word-for-word.

Yeah, primary season in NH brings out the political junkie in every New Englander.

I've been ODing on West Wing episodes recently and Season 6 is all about the primaries - and the show is where I got my basic training in American Politics. :-)

So Primary Season in NH has brought out the political junkie in this Australian. You should have seen me refreshing the NYT page the day of the Iowa Caucuses!

I get to see all the campaign ads. No, really. You can't hope to escape them. I think they beam them directly into your brain while you sleep.

And, heeee! Glad we're entertaining Australian West Wing fans. :-)

In our case, this is a deadly serious election. The U.S. political-economic-military system is heading for a car crash for sure. The only question is just how hard the crash's gonna be. And when it all comes raining down, we're going to need cold competence instead of "guy you'd like to go drinking with" in the White House.

I get how serious this is. I'm not treating it like a TV show, really :-) (Although oddly prescient it was in some respects - particularly the idea of a non-white man polling well in Iowa and NH.)

As much as I'm fascinated by the primary process, I do want to see change in your country.

I've basically been blissfully colorblind throughout in a "well, why wouldn't they vote for him?" kinda way. Though this was an interesting read on many levels and has me reassessing tomorrow and the days ahead quite a bit.

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Scenes from a Presidential Primary

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As an Iowan . . .

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